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Bet of the Day

(with Kelly fraction) 25% win
Median payoff: $4.60
Impact value: $1.15
  • Private Vow 19th race, Churchhill Downs, May 6th, 2%. Lost.
  • Barton Creek 2nd race, Evangeline Downs, Apr 28th. 10%. Lost.
  • Brickly Bear 1st race, Evangeline Downs, Mar 16th. 3%. Lost.
  • Sportster 4th race, Evangeline Downs, Mar 15th. 18%. Lost.
  • Leestown Native 2nd race, Evangeline Downs, Mar 11th. Lost.
  • Shezacommander 11th race, Evangeline Downs, March 9th. Lost.
  • Doc Hook 2nd Race, Sunland Park, March 7th.
    Lost.
  • Put Upon 2nd race, Gulfstream Park, March 6th
    Won. Paid $4.60

Race Tracks

Race Books

Run for the Roses

A horse handicapping game

Click here to download a free demo

$34.95

Features

• Up to 6 Players - Each with a choice of starting bankrolls to level the playing field for the beginning handicapper.

• 300 Horses - Each with a full race history that impacts the horse's odds and race behavior. Each horse's history is updated after each race is run.

• 20 Jockeys - The jockey's racing record also influences the horse they're riding - odds and behaviors

• Full color graphics - Just like being trackside.

• Racing Form - Displays up to 5 of the most recent races for each horse, detailing all the information needed to determine how each horse might stack up against the current conditions and competition. Print the information for an in-depth analysis, or view it onscreen. At the end of each race day, racing form data is updated with each horse's experience to provide true-to-life data for each horse's recent history.

• All the Wagers - Including Win, Place, Show, Across-the-Board, Exacta Keys/Box and Trifecta Keys/Box

Canadian racing
California fairs

It's been well established in horseracing that parimutuel bettors tend to overbet longshots, and underbet short priced horses. This finding has been replicated in academic studies of market inefficiencies many times. Except for a couple of exceptions (the exceptions are odds on favorites and place/show bets in some situations) the ineffiencies in the parimutual horse markets aren't enough to allow for a flat bet profit, however.

There's some evidence that there's enough overbetting of longshots off the last race of the day to squeeze out a profit. Many gamblers tend to chase loses, and at the racetrack they can do so without having to escalate bets, they can just bet on progressively longer prices. One way to chase at the racetrack is to start out the day betting favorites, and if you lose bet slightly longer priced horses on each race until you get even.

I could collect a whole bunch of data and test the hypothesis that favorites are underbet enough to profit from flat bets of the last race of the day, but that's a lot of work and not really much fun. So, what I'm going to do is just start making some bets and see how it turns out.

I'll be reporting on my results from time to time.

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